Learning out loud
How do we know what we think we know?
I read for a week, then try to explain one idea clearly enough that it survives contact with a reader. Mostly epistemology: belief, evidence, certainty, and the ways all three go wrong. One essay every Friday.
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Pre-registration
Does the Full Moon Make People Act Up? A Pre-Registration
Before comparing any data to the moon, here is exactly how I will test whether mood, violence, police calls and ER visits change at the full moon.
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Folk causation
Does the Full Moon Make People Act Up? The Results
I tested mood, assaults, police calls and ER visits against every full moon going back up to 25 years. The verdict: the full moon does not predict any of them.
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Pre-registration
Does Mercury Retrograde Break the Internet? A Pre-Registration
Before pulling any outage data, here is exactly how I will test whether tech fails more when Mercury is retrograde, and what I expect to find.
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Folk causation
Does Mercury Retrograde Break the Internet? The Results
I tested 16 years of outage records against every Mercury retrograde since 2010. The verdict: retrograde does not predict tech outages.